War of Attrition: Analytics and Forecasts

"Modern war is not only about how you fight, but also about what you fight with. And the last 150
years are not the business of the army alone, it is the business of the entire state," – Mykola
Beleskov, international political scientist, chief consultant of the Department of Military and Military-
Economic Policy of the National Institute of Strategic Studies.

About the negotiations between Ukraine and russia in Istanbul 03/29/22.

First of all, it is worth knowing that the negotiation process does not mean the cessation of
hostilities, as one might think, and many examples from history confirm this. And the main
conditions of probable agreements will be determined by two factors: the conduct of further
hostilities and Mobilization. After all, modern war is not only about how you fight, but also about
what you fight with. And the last 150 years are not the business of the army alone, it is the
business of the entire state.
I would perceive the negotiations in Istanbul as consultations rather than full-fledged negotiations.
Given that our enemy failed to advance in all directions, it is likely that they will concentrate on the
East. And according to the development of these events, there may already be a completely
different framework for negotiations.
Since today Ukraine does not have all the tools of pressure on the russian federation, an important
factor is also the support of our partners, who implement sanctions against russia and provide us
with material and technical assistance. And here it is very difficult to balance between two
positions: maximalist and neutral. On the one hand, our maximalist position does not coincide with
the Western one, and the question of providing ammunition and heavy weapons in the conditions
of a protracted war arises. On the other hand, when thinking about the position of neutrality, the
question of guarantees of our security arises.

Plans of the russian Federation regarding the encirclement of regions in Eastern Ukraine.

There is really intense fighting going on in the East right now. But surrounding is easier said than
done. The Russian troops already had an opportunity to implement their plan, but they failed to do
so. Where they advanced, there was not a breakthrough in the defense, but simply a pushback of
our troops. And now, when the front line is smaller and the concentration of Ukrainian troops is
greater, it will be even more difficult. We have already seen the total inability of Russia to fully
implement its tanks, artillery and aviation, when there were more favorable conditions for this,
because quantitatively they clearly had such an advantage. Therefore, how they realize their
strengths under worse conditions is a big question. Of course, the loss of territories is very difficult
for society to perceive, but in the conditions of a strategic and defensive war, it is worth keeping the
army, not the territories. After all, the army itself will be able to return them.

What is the phenomenon of Chornobayivka?

War is a struggle for communications and flanks. Therefore, the idea of ​​capturing Chornobayivka is
quite understandable: in order not to have to constantly fly from Crimea, the russian federation
wanted to localize its aviation forces in Chornobayivka. Formally, they do as they were taught in
the academy of the general staff: the troops advance and to reduce the time of the approach, it is
necessary to use the airfields that are in place. But since they failed to implement the plans related
to the Mykolaiv region, the possibility of so-called artillery raids remained for our military. Those
who want cheaper pay three times more. The battles in Chornobayivka are not only the destruction
of the russian army, but also its command posts. In addition, it played an important role in the
defense of Mykolaiv Oblast.

War is in the air.

There is an active struggle in the air now and we are not allowing russia to seize dominance.
However, of course, the forces here are unequal. Before the war, Ukraine had about 36 divisions of
air defense systems of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and they cover the largest
cities. Air defense independently shoots down planes, cruise missiles or helps fighters, but the
enemy, unfortunately, has more means of air attack. And despite the fact that we destroyed a lot of
their equipment, and more importantly – pilots, they may still have about 800 aircraft. But it should
be noted that now the enemy has concentrated its manned aviation on the direct support of its
ground forces. That is, having met a powerful resistance of our air forces, the enemy does not use
manned aviation to break through to large cities, but engages only in fire support. And here
missiles come into play, of which, unfortunately, there are many in russia. Fortunately, only about
40% of these missiles hit the target. And right now, you and I see that the enemy has targeted fuel
and lubricants, because it will not be possible to fight without fuel today.
Therefore, on the one hand, it is good that the enemy does not dare to use manned aviation
against large cities and targets in the rear. But on the other hand, they still have missiles.
To summarize, it is worth knowing that no one has won a war by aerial action. The whole problem
of non-contact wars, which modern states strive for, is that they do not give control over land.
Control over the territories is provided by armored vehicles and infantry, which our army perfectly
destroys.

NATO and other military alliances.

As you and I can see, unfortunately, we have no allies, because no one is ready to take on such
responsibility and risk a direct confrontation with the russian federation. But we have partners. And
here russia miscalculated, because it did not expect such a reaction from the West. If we talk about
NATO, there are a number of problems here, and one of them is that NATO includes 30 countries.
And with such a large number, it is very difficult to find a common denominator. Therefore, in this
situation, it is probably better to focus on situational associations.
Obviously, our partners will also act out of their own selfish interest. And it consists in opposing
russia, helping Ukraine and minimizing the risks of direct confrontation. Therefore, unfortunately,
speaking about NATO and its assistance to Ukraine, the situation is really sad and the main
assistance was actually provided on a bilateral basis. Based on this, we can say that it is worth
focusing on situational coalitions of states that are ready to help us.

Forecasts regarding the development of military operations.

War is not only about fighting, but also about mobilization. Therefore, it is important to outline the
factors that influence the further development of events:
Such a situation may arise that both sides will have nothing to fight for and after a certain time
there may be a lull.
Another option may arise on the front line, when we will not yet have the potential to advance and
carry out powerful counterattacks (not to be confused with the counterattacks that we carry out
regularly), at the same time when the enemy's offensive potential is also exhausted.
Since time is working against russia in the long term, due to sanctions pressure and other
restrictions, it is important for Ukraine to pass the moment when we may run out of ammunition.

However, knowing our people, I think they will be ready to fight even with an NLAW or Javeline in
their hands.
Today, it is very important for you and me to understand that victory is achieved by everyone, not
only by the military. Therefore, if you are not currently fighting at the front, do not beat yourself up,
because ordinary economic activity is a great contribution to victory. Therefore, our main task is
long-term confrontation and maximum support of the economy. She suffered a powerful blow,
which we will feel later. Therefore, if you have the opportunity to work, pay taxes, form banal
demand for ordinary groups of goods – this is a big contribution to victory.

Forecasts regarding the development of military operations.

War is not only about fighting, but also about mobilization. Therefore, it is important to outline the
factors that influence the further development of events:
Such a situation may arise that both sides will have nothing to fight for and after a certain time
there may be a lull.
Another option may arise on the front line, when we will not yet have the potential to advance and
carry out powerful counterattacks (not to be confused with the counterattacks that we carry out
regularly), at the same time when the enemy's offensive potential is also exhausted.
Since time is working against russia in the long term, due to sanctions pressure and other
restrictions, it is important for Ukraine to pass the moment when we may run out of ammunition.
However, knowing our people, I think they will be ready to fight even with an NLAW or Javeline in
their hands.
Today, it is very important for you and me to understand that victory is achieved by everyone, not
only by the military. Therefore, if you are not currently fighting at the front, do not beat yourself up,
because ordinary economic activity is a great contribution to victory. Therefore, our main task is
long-term confrontation and maximum support of the economy. She suffered a powerful blow,
which we will feel later. Therefore, if you have the opportunity to work, pay taxes, form banal
demand for ordinary groups of goods – this is a big contribution to victory.

Olena Mordacheva took notes.
The materials are taken from the website of the UCU Business School